Australian Wool Production Forecast Report April 2024

• The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s (AWPFC) fourth forecast of Australian shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 324 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy, 1.0% lower than the 2022/23 season estimate, and a 4 Mkg greasy downward revision of the December forecast.

• Held over lambs are expected to generate a small increase in the number of sheep shorn during 2023/24 (71.6 million, up 0.1%). New South Wales is forecast to shear 26.6 million head this season (up 2.7%) with the number of sheep shorn expected to increase in both South Australia (11.4 million, up 2.7%) and Tasmania (2.8 million, up 7.7%). Decreases are forecasted in Victoria (15.6 million, down 3.1%), Western Australia (12.5 million, down 4.2%) and Queensland (2.7 million, down 3.6%).

• Seasonal conditions have been varied across the key wool producing regions since the December forecast. The BOM outlook for January to March 2024 is for below median rainfall across most of Australia with average to above average maximum temperatures.

•  Average cut per head is expected to be 4.53 kg greasy, down 2.2% compared to 2022/23. AWTA key test data for the 2023/24 season to date show no change in mean fibre diameter (20.8 microns) or vegetable matter (2.2%), a 2.1 mm decrease in staple length to 87.5 mm and a 0.6% reduction in yield to 65.8%.

• Shorn wool production is forecast to increase in New South Wales (122.2 Mkg greasy, up2.7%) and South Australia (58.6 Mkg greasy, up 3.4%) with decreases forecast in the other states. Victoria is anticipated to produce 68.7 Mkg greasy (down 1.9%), followed by Western Australia (55.6 Mkg greasy, down 8.3%), Queensland (10.1 Mkg greasy, down 10.6%) and Tasmania (9.3 Mkg greasy, down 8.8%).

• AWTA wool test volumes for the 2023/24 season from July 2023 to March 2024 were downby 2.9% on a year-on-year basis. The volumes of wool tested from July to March during 2023/24 increased in South Australia (up 7.6%) but decreased in all other states Queensland’s wool test volumes were down 16.7%, Western Australia down 5.5%, Tasmania down 5.4%, New South Wales down 4.0% and Victoria down 3.4%.

• First-hand offered wool at auction during 2023/24 to week 39 was 1.4% higher compared with the same time during 2022/23. First-hand auction offerings increased in South Australia (up 10.3%), Tasmania (up 4.4%) and Western Australia (up 3.7%). First-hand auction offerings decreased in Victoria (down 4.3%), Queensland (down 2.0%) and New South Wales (down 0.1%).

• ABS sheep slaughter data for July to December 2023 were 29% higher compared with the same six months during 2022/23 and lamb slaughter was up 20%. Total turnoff of sheep and lambs in the first 6 months of the 2023/24 season was 21% higher than the same six months of 2022/23 and 22% above the five-year average.

• The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2024/25 season is 306 Mkg greasy, a 5.8% decrease on the 2023/24 forecast

• Table 1 summarises Australian wool production and Table 2 shows the total shorn wool production by state. Table 3 provides a snapshot of AWTA key test data from July 2023 to March 2024.

Table 1: Summary of Australian wool production

Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state (million kg)

Table 3: AWTA key test data for 2022/23 and 2023/24 (July to March)

• More detailed information on the shorn wool production by state in 2023/24 can be found in Table A1 in the Appendix to this report.
• The Appendix also provides historical data for Australia, including sheep shorn numbers, average cut per head and shorn wool production (Table A2) as well as the micron profile (Table A3) since 1991/92.

Detail on shorn wool production for the 2023/24 forecast

Major data inputs

The AWPFC forecasts are based on detailed consideration by the state and national committees of data from various sources including:

• AWTA wool test data for the 2023/24 from July 2023 to March 2024;
• AWEX first-hand auction statistics for the 2023/24 season from July 2023 to March 2024 (Week 39);
• ABS sheep and lamb turn-off for the 2023/24 season from July to December 2023;
• Information on current and expected seasonal conditions from the Bureau of Meteorology; and
• Survey information from the MLA/AWI Sheep Producer Intentions Pulse Surveyconducted in February 2024.

AWTA wool test data

Every month AWTA releases data on the volumes of greasy wool tested within the various diameter categories for the month and the season to date. In this report data for the 2023/24season from July to March are compared with the corresponding nine months in previous seasons (2019/20 to 2022/23).

The month-by-month comparison of wool tested during the first nine months of the 2023/24 season show higher monthly test volumes for August, October and November (Figure 1). Test volumes for December 2023 were the lowest for the past 5 seasons, with volumes tested from January to March lower than the 2022/23 season. Across all five seasons, monthly test volumes tend to increase from July to November, decrease in December and then increase from January to March.

Figure 1: Comparison of monthly AWTA key test data volumes for July to March in the 2023/24 season with previous seasons (2019/20 to 2022/23)

AWTA national wool test volumes data for the 2023/24 July 2023 to March 2024 during the 2023/24 season (Table 4) shows:

• Volumes of wool tested were 2.9% lower than July to March during the 2023/24 season and were 2.3% higher than the five-year average from 2018/19 to 2022/23.
• There were increases in the weight of wool tested in less than 16.6 microns (up 16.4%), 17 microns (up 10.3%), 18 microns (up 5.7%) and the greater than 30.5 microns (up 13.4%) categories. The weight of wool tested in all other micron categories decreased.
• The largest micron categories by volume were the 19-micron (49.49 Mkg greasy), 18-micron (45.92 Mkg greasy) and 20-micron (35.80 Mkg greasy) categories.
• The micron split (% of total weight of wool tested) during July to March 2023/24 was very similar to that tested during the same nine months in 2022/23. The difference across the micron categories ranged from +1.8 % (24-micron) to +19.6% (19-micron).

Table 4: AWTA key test data volumes (Mkg greasy) for July to March by micron range 2018/19 to 2023/24 (Mkg greasy)

Note: The micron categories refer to a range of -0.4 and +0.5um around each number. for example, 18um is between 17.6 and 18.5 microns

The micron profile of the Australian wool clip continues to have two distinct peaks; one centred around 19-micron wool (finer than 16.6 microns up to 23 microns) and a second centred around 27 - 28 microns (from 24 microns to 30.5 microns and broader) (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Australian fibre diameter profile 2023/24 season July to March compared with the same nine months in the 2019/20 to 2022/23 seasons

A historical comparison of the Australian wool clip’s micron profile percentage share and average micron can be found in Appendix Table A3 (at the end of this report).

Based on data by Wool Statistical Area (WSA), the volumes of wool tested from July 2023 to March 2024 during 2023/24 decreased in all states except for South Australia (up 7.6%).Queensland had the greatest decrease in the volume of wool tested (down 16.7%), followed by Western Australia (down 5.5%), Tasmania (down 5.4%), New South Wales (down 4.0%)and Victoria (down 3.4%)

Figure 3: Volume of wool tested (AWTA key test data) during the 2023/24 season from July to March compared with previous seasons (2019/20 to 2022/23). The percentage change in red font is the 2023/24 season from July to March compared with the same nine months in the 2022/23 season

In New South Wales, the greatest volumes of wool tested originated from WSA regions N23(15.6%), N19 (7.8%), N29 (7.0%), N03 (5.8%) and N15 (5.6%) (Figure 4a). Collectively, these five WSAs represented 41.8% of the total weight of wool tested in New South Wales during 2023/24 July to March (Figure 4b).

Figure 4: a) The five New South Wales WSA regions from which the greatest volumes of wool tested originated and b) The total wool test volumes for the 2023/24 season July to March compared with previous seasons (2018/19 to 2022/23). The larger blue portion of each column represents the other WSA regions with the coloured bars representing the 5 largest WSA regions: green; light blue; yellow; grey & orange. The continuous black horizontal line represents the 5-year average from 2018/19 to 2022/23 for the other WSAs with the dashed black line the five-year average for the state. Data is in greasy tonnes.

In Victoria, the greatest volumes of wool tested originated from WSA regions V21 (13.6%), V18 (10.5%), V07 (10.1%), V25 (9.8%) and V22 (8.5%) (Figure 5a). Collectively, these five WSAs represented 52.5% of the total weight of wool tested in Victoria during 2023/24 July to March (Figure 5b).

Figure 5: a) The five Victorian regions from which the greatest volumes of wool tested originated and b) The total wool test volumes for the 2023/24 season July to March compared with previous seasons (2018/19 to 2022/23).The larger blue portion of each column represents the other WSA regions with the coloured bars representing the 5 largest WSA regions: green; light blue; yellow; grey & orange. The continuous black horizontal line represents the 5-year average from 2018/19 to 2022/23 for the other WSAs with the dashed black line the five-year average for the state. Data is in greasy tonnes.

In Western Australia, the greatest volumes of wool tested originated from WSA regions W12(20.1%), W09 (17.6%), W10 (13.5%), W07 (8.8%) and W11 (7.9%) (Figure 6a). Collectively, these five WSAs represented 67.9% of the total weight of wool tested in Western Australiaduring 2023/24 July to March (Figure 6b).

Figure 6: a) The five Western Australian regions from which the greatest volumes of wool tested originated and b) The total wool test volumes for the 2023/24 season July to March compared with previous seasons (2018/19 to 2022/23). The larger blue portion of each column represents the other WSA regions with the coloured bars representing the 5 largest WSA regions: green; light blue; yellow; grey & orange. The continuous black horizontal line represents the 5- year average from 2018/19 to 2022/23 for the other WSAs with the dashed black line the five-year average for the state. Data is in greasy tonnes.

In South Australia, the greatest volumes of wool tested originated from WSA regions S29(20.7%), S15 (9.1%), S13 (9.1%), S30 (8.4%) and S21 (7.5%) (Figure 7a). Collectively, these five WSAs represented 54.8% of the total weight of wool tested in South Australia during 2023/24 July to March (Figure 7b).

Figure 7: a) The five South Australian regions from which the greatest volumes of wool tested originated and b) The total wool test volumes for the 2023/24 season July to March compared with previous seasons (2018/19 to 2022/23). The larger blue portion of each column represents the other WSA regions with the coloured bars representing the 5 largest WSA regions: green; light blue; yellow; grey & orange. The continuous black horizontal line represents the 5-year average from 2018/19 to 2022/23 for the other WSAs with the dashed black line the five-year average for the state. Data is in greasy tonnes.

In Tasmania, the greatest volumes of wool tested originated from WSA regions T05 (34.9%), T04 (24.9%), T03 (23.1%), T06 (10.7%) and T01 (4.4%) (Figure 8a). Collectively, these five WSAs represented 98.0% of the total weight of wool tested in Tasmania during 2023/24 July to March (Figure 8b).

Figure 8: a) The five Tasmanian regions from which the greatest volumes of wool tested originated and b) The total wool test volumes for the 2023/24 season July to March compared with previous seasons (2018/19 to 2022/23). The larger blue portion of each column represents the other WSA regions with the coloured bars representing the 5 largest WSA regions: green; light blue; yellow; grey & orange. The continuous black horizontal line represents the 5-year average from 2018/19 to 2022/23 for the other WSAs with the dashed black line the five-year average for the state. Data is in greasy tonnes.

In Queensland, the greatest volumes of wool tested originated from WSA regions Q12 (24.7%), Q23 (11.3%), Q15 (10.9%), Q22 (7.0%) and Q21 (6.3%) (Figure 9a). Collectively, these five WSAs represented 60.2% of the total weight of wool tested in Tasmania during 2023/24 July to March (Figure 9b)

Figure 9: a) The five Queensland regions from which the greatest volumes of wool tested originated and b) The total wool test volumes for the 2023/24 season July to March compared with previous seasons (2018/19 to 2022/23). The larger blue portion of each column represents the other WSA regions with the coloured bars representing the 5 largest WSA regions: green; light blue; yellow; grey & orange. The continuous black horizontal line represents the 5- year average from 2018/19 to 2022/23 for the other WSAs with the dashed black line the five-year average for the state. Data is in greasy tonnes.

A graphical representation of the AWTA Key Test Data changes in mean fibre diameter (MFD), vegetable matter (VM), staple length (SL), yield (YIELD), staple strength (SS) and hauteur (TEAM 3 H) from the 2003/04 season to the 2023/24 season July to March is shown in Figure 10. On each graph the red dot represents the mean value of each characteristic for the 2023/24 season July to March while the blue dot represents the mean for the same ninemonths of the 2022/23 season. The values above the gauge on the left-hand side of each graph show the mean and standard deviation respectively for that characteristic from 2003/04to 2023/24. Each coloured segment on the gauges represents one standard deviation with the mean at 12 o-clock (centre). For MFD, VM, SL, YIELD and SS, the mean and standard deviation are based on data from the 2003/04 season onwards. For TEAM 3 the mean and standard deviation are based on data from the 2006/07 season onwards. The red line on each gauge is the mean for the 2023/24 season July to March (TY), while the blue line is the mean for the 2022/23 season July to March (LY).

• On a national basis, compared with the 2022/23 season July to March, mean fibre diameter was the same at 20.8 microns, staple length was down 2.1 mm to 87.5 mm and staple strength was down 0.4 N/ktex to 34.5 N/ktex (Figure 10a).
• Vegetable matter was unchanged at 2.2%, yield was down 0.6% to 65.8% and predicted hauteur (TEAM 3) was down 1.9 mm to 70.4 mm (Figure 10b).

Figure 10a: AWTA Key Test Data (by sampling site) mean fibre diameter (MFD), staple length (SL) and staple strength (SS) for the Australian wool clip from 2003/04 to 2023/24 for July to March.

Figure 10b: AWTA Key Test Data (by sampling site) vegetable matter (VM), yield (YIELD) and TEAM 3 H (TEAM 3 H) for the Australian wool clip from 2003/04 to 2023/24 for July to March.

AWEX auction statistics

The AWEX auction statistics for the 2023/24 season to week 39 show an 1.4% increase in the volume of first-hand wool offered compared to the 2022/23 season to week 39 (Table 5).

• First-hand bales offered increased in South Australia (up 10.3%), Tasmania (up 4.4%) and Western Australia (up 3.7%). Decreases occurred in Victoria (down 4.3%), Queensland (down 2.0%) and New South Wales (down 0.1%).
• The volume of first-hand Merino wool offered across Australia decreased by 0.1% with a7.1% increase in first-hand Crossbred wool offered. The share of Merino wool of all firsthand offered wool was 77.8% up to week 39 of 2023/24, compared with 79.0% to week 39 in 2022/23 and 79.7% in 2021/22.
• There was a 4.0% increase in the volume of ‘Prem-shorn’ Merino fleece wool up to week 39 in 2023/24 (12.4 Mkg) compared with the same time during 2022/23 (11.9 Mkg).
• As a percentage share of the total first-hand wool offered, 7% of Australian first-hand bales offered were prem shorn up to week 39 of 2023/24. On a state-by-state basis this ranged from 0% in Queensland to 48% in New South Wales.

Table 5: AWEX Auction Statistics 2023/24 (to week 39)

Note: Data on ‘prem shorn’ wool from AWEX is based on the assessed length of the wool being offered. it is defined as <85 - 75 mm, depending on micron and excluding weaners and lambs wool

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data

Sheep turn-off

Australian sheep and lamb turn-off statistics during July to December 2023 season are shown in Table 6:

• There was a 29% increase in sheep slaughter, and an 20% increase in lamb slaughtercompared with the same six months during 2022/23.
• Sheep slaughter was 17% above the five-year average with lamb slaughter 25% higher than the five-year average.
• The number of live sheep exported from Australia decreased by 28% between July to December 2023 and were 34% below the five-year average.
• Total turnoff of sheep and lambs during July to December 2023/24 was 21% higher than the six months in 2022/23 and 22% above the five-year average.

Table 6: ABS Sheep turn off data for 2023/24 from July to December compared with the same six months in 2021/22

Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) seasonal rainfall seasonal outlook

Seasonal conditions during the 2023/24 season to the end of March 2024 were generally dry to average across key wool producing regions since the December forecast period (Figure 11). The major wool producing regions in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania had below average to very much below average rainfall. The main wool producing regions in New South Wales and Queensland received average to above rainfall.

Figure 11: Australian rainfall deciles, 2023/24 season to 31 March 2024

The landscape water balance in the major wool producing regions reflects seasonal conditions and rainfall (Figure 12).

Figure 12: Australian landscape water balance, at 29 March 2024 (Source: Bureau of Meterology)

The Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for rainfall during January to March 2024 is very likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for most major wool producing regions (Figure 13). Above average median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60 to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia (Figure 14).

In its update on 21 March 2024, the Bureau noted that their outlook was influenced by several factors, including record-warm oceans globally and a weakening El Niño.

Results from the MLA and AWI Sheep Producers Intentions Survey

The MLA and AWI Sheep Producers Intentions PULSE Survey – February 2024 found that 46% of sheep producers who responded sold exactly the number of lambs they had planned to sell up to 31 December 2023. Fourteen percent sold more lambs than planned with 40% reporting they sold fewer lambs than they had planned.

The key reasons for the fewer lamb sales were prices not strong enough at the time, lambs were retained due to stronger prices forecast for 2024, weather impacted lamb performance and processor availability.

State Committee input

The following provides a summary of seasonal conditions and the wool production forecast for 2023/24 as reported by the AWPFC state committees in April 2024.

New South Wales

Varied seasonal conditions across NSW, although it is generally dry in most regions. Summer storms occurred in most regions but in narrow bands. Properties under the storms have a good body of feed. Stock water availability is an issue in some regions. The southwest and southeast regions are in a good position going into winter. Producers are waiting for the autumn break. Sheep numbers are variable across regions, mostly stable although 2 to 5% increases in some regions with others down 2 to 20%. Most stock are in good condition, although a tail is emerging in mobs as the feed quantity deteriorates. Average cuts per head are also variable but expected to sit slightly above the historical average. High levels of vegetable matter, particularly Bathurst Burr, are occurring in western clips due to good summer rain.

Worm burdens remain an issue affecting younger sheep. Scanning percentages are similar to last season, but variable across the state.

Grower sentiment is moving negative, especially among fine wool producers, as fine wool and livestock prices remain low. There is increased movement away from 6-month shearing transitioning back to annual shearing. Self-replacing flocks are expected to remain stable, and fine tune or simplify their enterprise. There is increasing discussion among other producers (sheep traders, crossbred and shedding breeds) regarding moving away from sheep and looking to trade cattle. Increasing cost of production is a key threat to sheep and wool production as well as aging producers with no following generations. Cessation of government grants and tax concessions have impacted cashflow. Labour availability continues to be an issue.

Producers have tended to hold numbers to date by keeping wethers, joining terminal ramsover older ewes, but a reduction in sheep numbers is expected. A small shift back towards Merino production, away from first and second cross lamb production due to persistent low lamb prices and crossbred wool returns not covering the cost of shearing. Many crossbred producers are rethinking their breeding plans. Some swing back to Merino sheep by producers who had moved to shedding breeds. Sheep producers are increasingly looking for better money-making options than growing wool.

Very positive outlook for cropping with many mixed farmers looking to plant more crop if they receive the seasonal break. Widespread rain in early April will mean most of the state will head into autumn in good shape. The New South Wales Committee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 122.2 Mkg greasy, up 2.7% on 2022/23.

Victoria

Very favourable season through most of the state except the southwest. Good rain in December and January produced a ‘second spring’ with good late pasture growth producing quality green feed which persisted through to February in some regions. Producers held over lambs to finish. Sheep are very healthy and in good condition. Autumn shorn wools are expected to have high yield and low vegetable matter. Joining occurred during the green flush of pasture. Scanning results have been good and point towards high lambing percentages. Dry conditions in February and March have reduced worm impacts and fly activity.

The southwest region of Victoria which produces approximately 50% of the state’s wool are experiencing a very tough season, having received below average rainfall. While wool test volumes are currently at the 5-year average level, this is expected to decline due to the dry conditions. Retained older ewes are expected to be sold in the next few months.

Sheep numbers are rapidly reducing in cropping areas as producers look to increase the number of hectares under crop. Good soil moisture has increased confidence in cropping with good crop yields expected. Reports of sheep properties south of Edenhope to Mortlake and Lake Bolac changing management (via sale or lease) and moving out of sheep completely (particularly Merinos) and into cropping. ’Passionate’ Merino producers have held on to their good sheep, but this may change if the season turns difficult.

Wool producers have returned to ‘normal’ selling patterns. Low sheepmeat returns have promoted producers to sell and not wait for a rise in the wool market. Pass-in rates at Melbourne wool sales have been low. Most stores are up to date with their coring and testing. Low on-farm stocks of wool, producers are opting to get their clips tested and the make selling decisions based on the test results.

Wool production is expected to decrease as producer sentiment towards the wool industry is quite negative. The high cost of shearing (above award rates) relative to wool returns is increasing interest in shedding sheep breeds. Some composite producers are trialling joining Merino rams with good fat and eye muscle measurements to reduce fibre diameter and increase wool returns while maintaining lamb quality. Finer crossbred ewes (23 – 24 µm) are being retained to boost wool returns from crossbred lamb enterprises. The Victorian Committee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 68.7 Mkg greasy, down 1.9% on 2022/23.

Western Australia

Dry season throughout all WA sheep producing regions with feed and water shortages in many areas. Feed was limiting during joining, ewes were in low condition and scanning rates are expected to be low (down 15 to 25%). Widespread reports of producers opting not to join ewes, particularly from Merino x Merino joinings. Crossbred joinings are proceeding. Lower Merino ram sales were reported from the recent sale season and some reports of purchased ram teams not being used. Pregnancy scanning contractors report tighter joining windows of 3 to 4 weeks (rather than 6 to 8 weeks) which is expected to further lower lambing percentages. Shedding sheep breeds are increasing as a proportion of the state’s sheep flock.

There is a strong focus on selling sheep with large numbers of sheep for sale, especially storesheep which have minimal value. A significant number of wethers are believed to remain in the WA flock. These include held over lambs from 2023/24 which are rising 1 year old and have been difficult to sell, either for export or processing, due to their plain condition.

Wool is being sold on sheep’s backs given the high cost of shearing and low returns from prem wool. Little fresh wool is being held in stores, wool broker stores represent long term holds. Wool has come onto the market 3 to 4 months earlier than usual (i.e. wool usually sold in January to March was sold in October to December) due to the sideways movement of wool prices.

There is widespread pessimism among sheep producers across the state. More sheep would have been sold if a buyer could be found. Interstate sheep transfers were very high in February but reduced in March due to logistical reasons (i.e. floods closing major highways). Cost price squeeze pressures on all sheep industry inputs are negatively impacting sheep and wool production. Wool cuts are expected to remain at historical average levels for 2023/24. The Western Australian Committee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 55.6 Mkg greasy, down 8.3% on 2022/23.

South Australia

Good summer rain for most of the pastoral zone with good wool cuts, increased vegetable matter and high lambing percentages expected. The pastoral and northeast regions have had a great run for the past 6 months and are well set up for the rest of the season. Reports of 10% increases in average cut per head in many large pastoral properties. Patchy rain in the mid-North, some areas have had no rain since December with some destocking occurring. Increased cropping in mixed farming regions with some properties destocked as a result. Sheep numbers continue to decline on the Yorke Peninsula, land prices continue to rise. Generational changes are resulting in land being leased and absorbed into continual croppingsystems. Scattered rain throughout the Mallee has improved sheep feed, mixed farmers are getting ready for seeding.

Other regions are progressing as normal with supplementary feeding of stock. Producers are waiting on opening rains with some regions (Kangaroo Island) expecting a late break.Sheep are in excellent condition in the southeast with good scanning rates. The lower southeast is particularly dry, feed has diminished, and producers are hoping for an Anzac Day break (although the average break occurs in mid-May).

Increased number of producers trialling alternative sheep enterprises by introducing a mob of Dorpers or other shedding breeds into their flocks.

Some shearings of pastoral clips are delayed by approximately 3 weeks due to rain, but are expected to be delivered to store and tested in the next two months. Some clips from mixed farming regions have come into store earlier than expected due to harvest finishing early and no rain delays to shearing. Growers are meeting the market across all micron ranges.

Average cuts per head in the pastoral zone are expected to be about 7 kg greasy. Fleece weights in other regions expected to be consistent with 2022/23. The South AustralianCommittee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 58.6 Mkg greasy, up 3.4% on 2022/23.

Tasmania

Grain stocks are reported to be adequate but there is an acute widespread shortage of hay and silage across the state. Seasonal conditions this poor have not been seen for the past 25 years.

The single operating small stock abattoir is running at capacity. Logistic issues affecting Bass Strait transport (availability and cost) have prevented surplus animals being processed on the mainland. Currently there is a 4-6 week wait for off-island transport. Availability is expected to improve in coming months with sheep slaughter expected to increase to the end of June. Transport costs for wool bales and livestock have increased significantly.

Current seasonal conditions are similar to the mid-2000 drought when producers reduced joining percentages, but fodder, abattoir and transport availability were not significant issues then. Producers have a pessimistic view of the seasonal conditions for the coming months with many considering taking another draft of ewes from their classed mobs to sell. Breeding ewes are in poorer condition than last season, producers are expected to join fewer ewes (some may opt to not join). Low conception and fertility rates are expected.

AWTA WSA test volumes are expected to decline further from the -5.4% tested toward the end of March as the bulk of Tasmanian shearing occurs between July to December. The forecast 0.55 kg greasy reduction in cut per head compared with the 2022/23 season reflectsthe impact of the poor season in wool cut per head and quality and will generate the 0.88M kg greasy reduction in shorn wool production.

Low producer cash flow resulting from transport issues together have prompted producers to sell wool held in brokers stores which accounts for the increase in AWEX first-hand auction data. Given the relatively small size of the Tasmanian wool clip, any change in auction offerings of as few 100 bales will impact on the percentage change in AWEX data. The Tasmanian Committee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 9.3 Mkg greasy, down 8.8% on 2022/23.

Queensland

Heat and humidity have negatively impacted sheep production with reduced liveweight gain of young sheep, lower wool growth and a potential negative impact on fertility. Sheep are expending energy to maintain their body temperature with less energy being directed to wool growth. The humidity has increased fly activity and increased the incidence of coloured wool fault. Lambing is expected to be average with ewe losses reported between 8 and 20%. Shedding breeds have been impacted with fibre being retained along their backs leading to flystrike.

2023/24 is an average season coming off an exceptional season in 2022/23. Isolated rain has fallen in some key sheep producing regions, prompting some producers to hold onto stock to increase numbers. Lambs will have some green pick. Northern regions have had sufficient rain to get through winter.

Larger growers are questioning the future of Merino production given the low level of the wool market and the high cost of shearing, particularly in the past two months. Producers are considering selling their properties or diversifying into goats or shedding breeds if they are not located in country suitable for cattle. Reports of some large producers opting not to join. Movement away from 6 monthly shearing, transitioning back to an annual shearing.

Reports of increased wild dog activity outside of fences and increased pressure on exclusion fencing in all regions. This may be due to reduced control effects (i.e. trapping) and lax maintenance of the exclusion fences.

Average cut per head reduced to 3.70 kg greasy due to high temperatures and humidity, average season and retained wether weaners that were sold to generate some return from wool due to their low sheepmeat value. Reduction in shorn wool production, few wool clips are expected to be larger than 2022/23. The Queensland Committee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 10.1 Mkg greasy, down 10.6% on 2022/23.

Appendix

Table A1: Comparison of shorn wool production in 2022/23 against the 2021/22season and the third forecast for 2023/24 against the 2022/23 season

At their September 2022 meeting, the AWPFC National Committee resolved to include a clean estimate of shorn wool production based on the yield (%, Schlumberger dry top and noil yield) from the AWTA key test data for each complete season.

Historical Australian Production Figures

The tables below provide historical sheep shorn numbers, wool production, fleece weightand micron share statistics since 1991/92 for background information.

Table A2: Australian wool production statistics since 1991/92At their September 2022 meeting, the AWPFC National Committee resolved to include a clean estimate of shorn wool production for each full season based on the yield (%, Schlumberger dry top and noil yield) from the AWTA key test data for that season.

Table A3: Australian micron profile of AWTA wool test volume statistics since 1991/92 (%share and average micron)

Explanation of revised AWPFC data series

At the December 2005 meeting, the national Committee made the decision to collate andreview the key variables (shorn wool production, cut per head, number of sheep shorn) used in the committee from the available industry sources and to create a consistent historical data series at both a state and national level. This was required as some differences existed between industry accepted figures and the AWPFC data series and to ensure a consistent methodology over time. This process resulted in changes to the parameters ‘average cut per head’ and the ‘number of sheep shorn’ for some seasons at both a state and national level.

Modus operandi for the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee draws together a range of objective data and qualitative information to produce consensus-based, authoritative forecasts four times a year for Australian wool production.

The Committee has a two-level structure, with a National Committee considering information and advice from state committees. It is funded by Australian Wool Innovation Limited, whichalso provides a representative in the role of the Chairman of the National Committee.

The National and state committees comprise wool producers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants, AWEX, AWTA, ABARES, ABS, MLA, state departments of Agriculture, sheep pregnancy scanners and AWI.

The Committee releases its forecasts in the forms of a press release and a report providing the detailed forecasts, historical data and commentary on the key drivers of the forecasts.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Mr Stephen Hill, National Committee Chairman
Tel: +61 0429 494 690
© Australian Wool Innovation Limited April 2024.
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