Australian Wool Production Forecast Report December 2014
Australian wool production down 2% in 2014/15. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has forecast production at 334 million kilograms greasy for the 2014/15 season, down by 2% from the 2013/14 season total of 341 mkg. Production is now anticipated to be slightly less than the decline previously forecast in August.
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee's updated forecast sets shorn wool production for 2014/15 at 334 mkg, down 2% from the level in 2013/14.
- Nationally, average fleece weights are expected to increase (+2.9%) due to better than expected fleece weights in some parts of NSW, Victoria and South Australia, but this will not be enough to offset fully the estimated decline in the number of sheep shorn (-4.7%).
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson commented that "while the Committee expected in August that average fleece weights would improve this season, the increase appears to have been better than anticipated in some regions, notably in the southern half of New South Wales where seasonal conditions are reported to be very good".
Mr Pattinson added that "the fall in the number of sheep shorn across the country will still outweigh the improvement in average fleece weights".
Regionally, very poor seasonal conditions in Queensland are expected to see production in that state fall to the lowest on record. Elsewhere, northern New South Wales shorn wool production has also been affected by poor seasons, although this has been offset by the improvement in the southern half of the state. Western Australia and Victoria are expected to see a decline for the season. South Australia should see higher production this season even though conditions are expected to be more difficult in the second half of the season than the first half. The same is true for Tasmania, where production is forecast to be down slightly.
The Committee noted that the AWTA wool test data shows a reduction in the fine end of the clip, especially wool 16.5 microns and finer, in the first five months of the season.
| Table 1: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia | |||||
| Parameter | 2012/13 Final Estimate |
2013/14 Final Estimate |
Change y-o-y (%) | 2014/15 Third Forecast |
Change y-o-y (%) |
| Opening sheep numbers (million head) |
74.7 | 75.5 | +1.2% | 71.8 | -5.0% |
| Sheep numbers shorn (million head) |
78.8 | 78.0 | -1.0% | 74.3 | -4.7% |
| Average cut per head (kg/head) |
4.47 | 4.37 | -2.3% | 4.49 | +2.9% |
| Shorn wool production (mkg greasy) |
352 | 341 | -3.3% | 334 | -2.0% |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
| Table 2: Total greasy wool production by state - 2013/14 and 2014/15 forecasts | |||||||
| QLD | NSW | VIC | TAS | SA | WA | National | |
| 2013/14 Final Estimate (mkg) | 10.8 | 125.3 | 70.5 | 10.2 | 52.0 | 71.8 | 341 |
| 2014/15 December Forecast (mkg) | 7.4 | 125.1 | 69.3 | 10.1 | 53.0 | 68.9 | 334 |
| Change y-o-y (%) | -31.9% | -0.1% | -1.7% | -0.6% | +1.9% | -4.1% | -2.0% |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.
Data and input was also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.
The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website at www.wool.com/forecasts from 19th December 2014.
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