Australian wool production unchanged in 2014/15 and predicted to ease in 2015/16
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has set its forecast production for the 2014/15 season at 341 million kilograms greasy for the 2014/15 season, the same as the estimate for the 2013/14 season.
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts shorn wool production for 2014/15 at 341 mkg, the same as the 2013/14 level. This reflects a small drop in shorn sheep numbers offset by higher average fleece weights.
- The Committee’s first projection for 2015/16 has been set at 332 mkg, down by 2.7% from 2014/15, a result of lower sheep numbers arising from the high sheep and lamb turn-off rates this season.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has set its forecast production for the 2014/15 season at 341 million kilograms greasy for the 2014/15 season, the same as the estimate for the 2013/14 season.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson commented that "while there is expected to be a reduction in the number of sheep shorn this season, this decline will be offset by an increase in average fleece weights across Australia due to good production conditions in several regions, including southern New South Wales, northern South Australia and regions in Victoria."
The AWPFC has also made its initial projection for the 2015/16 season, with a forecast 2.7% decline in shorn wool production to 332 mkg. This decrease is due to an expected reduction in opening sheep numbers as a result of the continued high sheep and lamb turn-off rates in the current season.
The Committee noted that the AWTA wool test data for 2014/15 shows a reduction in volumes of wool 17.5 microns and finer, and an increase in 18-19 micron, 22-23 micron and broad wool (27 microns and broader), in the first nine months of the season. This has resulted in a 0.2 micron increase in the mean fibre diameter for Australia so far this season.
Table 1: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia
| Parameter | 2013/14 Final Estimate |
2014/15 Forth Forecast |
Change y-o-y (%) | 2015/16 Initial Projection |
Change y-o-y (%) |
| Opening sheep numbers (million head) |
75.5 | 71.6 | -5.2% | 69.1 | -3.5% |
| Sheep numbers shorn (million head) |
78.0 | 75.8 | -2.8% | 73.7 | -2.9% |
| Average cut per head (kg/head) |
4.37 | 4.49 | +2.9% | 4.50 | +0.2% |
| Shorn wool production (mkg greasy) |
341 | 341 | 0.0% | 332 | -2.7% |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
Table 2: Total greasy wool production by state - 2012/13 and 2013/14 forecasts
| QLD | NSW | VIC | TAS | SA | WA | National | |
| 2013/14 Final Estimate (mkg) | 10.8 | 125.3 | 70.5 | 10.2 | 52.0 | 71.8 | 341 |
| 2014/15 April Forecast (mkg) | 8.1 | 128.1 | 71.9 | 10.2 | 56.1 | 66.4 | 341 |
| Change y-o-y % | -24.8% | +2.2% | -1.9% | 0.0% | +7.9% | -7.4% | 0.0% |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.
Data and input was also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.
The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website at www.wool.com/forecasts by 22nd April 2015.
